Every school has a theory: when in doubt, pick (3). We tested it on 2008 real O/L Paper I answers from four subjects, every one checked against the published marking scheme. The short answer: no option wins by enough to matter.
All four subjects together
| Correct option | Times | Share |
|---|---|---|
| (1) | 474 | 23.6% |
| (2) | 527 | 26.2% |
| (3) | 526 | 26.2% |
| (4) | 481 | 24% |
| Total | 2008 | 100% |
Pure chance would be 25% each. The most frequent option overall is (2) at 26.2%, and the spread between the most and least frequent is 2.6 percentage points.
Subject by subject
Share of correct answers that are each option, in %.
| Subject | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Science | 24.5 | 26.4 | 25 | 24.1 |
| History | 24.4 | 26.5 | 27.7 | 21.4 |
| Sinhala | 25.4 | 25.4 | 24.8 | 24.4 |
| Buddhism | 20.2 | 26.6 | 27.2 | 26 |
The biggest lean in any one subject is History, where (3) is the answer 27.7% of the time. Even there, if you had to guess on ten questions, always picking (3) would get you about 0.3 more right than picking at random. Not even one extra mark. The examiners balance the options; the paper is not going to hand you a pattern.
What actually improves a guess
- Cross out two. Ruling out two options moves a guess from 25% to 50%. No letter rule comes close to that.
- Watch for "not". In "which is not..." questions (නොවන්නේ), three options are true statements. Find the false one.
- Check statement questions one by one. "A and B only" style options fall apart once you are sure about a single statement.
- Never leave a question blank. A blank is a certain zero.
Method
The count covers every question we hold from the Sinhala-medium Paper I of each subject (Science 2013 to 2025, History 2012 to 2025, Sinhala 2012 to 2025, Buddhism 2013 to 2025), with options kept in the paper's printed (1) to (4) order and every answer checked against the marking scheme. Questions we could not reproduce faithfully, usually ones that need a diagram, are not included.
Try one: no guessing needed
එක්සත් ජාතීන්ගේ සංවිධානයේ මහලේකම්වරයා පත් කරනු ලබන්නේ,
- Aආරක්ෂක මණ්ඩල නිර්දේශය මත මහා මණ්ඩලය විසිනි.
- Bජාත්යන්තර අධිකරණය විසිනි.
- Cආර්ථික හා සමාජ මණ්ඩලය විසිනි.
- Dනිෂේධ බලය හිමි නිත්ය සාමාජිකයන් විසිනි.